MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2062

ACUS11 KWNS 062203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062202
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-062330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN ND...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN...NERN THROUGH
S-CENTRAL SD...N-CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062202Z - 062330Z

TSTMS MAY FORM IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND DRYLINE
BETWEEN SERN ND AND SWRN NEB...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS.

2130Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN ND INVOF JMS...COLD FRONT
SWWD ALONG LINE ABR...VTN...25 N SNY...INTO ANOTHER LOW JUST S CYS.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD 20-25 KT ACROSS NEB AND EWD
15-20 KT OVER DAKOTAS. DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT OVER CHERRY COUNTY
NEB AND EXTENDS SSWWD THROUGH IML...WITH SLGT NWWD RETREAT POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY FRONT. COLD FRONTAL ZONE JUST NE OF ND
LOW ALSO IS MOVING SEWD 10-15 KT UNTIL PASSING THROUGH INFLECTION
POINT NEAR CKN...WITH WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 50-75 J/KG SBCINH ALONG MUCH OF FRONTAL
ZONE...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CU/TCU...ESPECIALLY OVER NEB
WHERE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING HAS TAKEN PACE ON
RELATIVELY HIGH TERRAIN. LARGEST MLCAPES THROUGH 00Z SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG OVER ERN DAKOTAS AMIDST MID 60S F SFC DEW
POINTS...THEN DECREASE WITH SFC COOLING. 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION FORMING INVOF
FRONT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WHERE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN DISCRETE.
TSTMS FARTHER N MAY HAVE BEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SFC-BASED AND
DISCRETE FOR LONGER DURATION...WITH MEAN WIND AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ALIGNED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FRONT. FARTHER S...FLOW ALOFT IS
PARALLEL TO FRONT...WHICH MAY UNDERCUT CONVECTION QUICKLY.

.EDWARDS.. 10/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...

40580179 41460122 42500091 43219970 44439851 46709826
47319715 47229618 46459573 45019638 43399734 41869852
40140081

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.