SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061905
MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...MA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061905Z - 062100Z
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND ADIRONDACK REGIONS OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A WATCH
OR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING EAST WITHIN BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST APPEAR TO BE ENHANCING WARM SECTOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM SRN ONTARIO
ACROSS WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING OF SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
AIR MASS WAS SUPPORTING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT MORE ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...
MODEST MEAN-LAYER WLY FLOW OF ABOUT 25-30KT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF STORMS COULD
ENHANCE STORM DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOCALLY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS AS THESE STORMS TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF VT/WRN MA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
.CARBIN.. 10/06/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
43247648 44097409 43717282 42577301 42057380 41907462
42397668
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