SWODY1
SPC AC 061628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN NEB INTO EASTERN
ND/NORTHWEST MN...
..NEB/SD/ND/MN...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS STATES.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WITH COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CO. MORNING RAOBS AND
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH LITTLE WEAKENING EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR
UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER DARK. EVEN THEN...PRESENCE OF CAPPING
INVERSION AND ANAFRONT ORIENTATION OF FLOW FIELD SUGGEST GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IN 100MI ZONE BEHIND FRONT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS OVERNIGHT.
..MI...
MORNING RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER UPPER MI
MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD ONTARIO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON
IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SURFACE HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /25-35
KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000
J/KG/ FOR A RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THREAT
DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
.HART/JEWELL.. 10/06/2007
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