Friday, September 16, 2011

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160728
SWODY3
SPC AC 160727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CONTINUANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW
REGIME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO VICINITIES.

...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...WHILE
MOISTURE OTHERWISE SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT. GIVEN
AMPLE HEATING...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AMID
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX INTO
SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS...WHILE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN /BUT LIKELY MUCH WEAKER/ ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AS CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY BE PERSISTENT.

WHILE AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/ADVANCING FRONT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND/OR WIND...A
PARTICULARLY FOCUSED/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THAT THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION WILL BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...FACTORS SUCH AS
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE/WEAKENING NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS WELL AS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /30 KT OR LESS/...IMPLY
NOTHING MORE THAN A SPORADIC HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS A BROAD PART
OF THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 09/16/2011

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