SWODY2
SPC AC 160600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONGEST WESTERLIES
CONFINED TO THE CONUS NORTHERN TIER. HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THIS
REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE CONUS NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD-ADVANCING
NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH A GRADUAL
NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASINGLY PREVALENT SURFACE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...WARM ADVECTION-DRIVEN EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO
VALLEY/OZARKS...BUT LITTLE OR NO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED NEAR/EAST OF THE
SHARPENING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
TX/WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS FOR AS
MUCH AS 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE IN THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON AMID
LOWER/PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STRONGER HEATING
NEAR/WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE AND THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /30-35 KT/...THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SUSTAINED/SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SOME
SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...OTHER MORE MARGINAL AND/OR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AREAS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AS WELL AS WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...BUT MAINLY ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY AMID A STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE BY LATE EVENING...SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAIL.
..GUYER.. 09/16/2011
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