SWODY1
SPC AC 160513
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP SLOWLY RETREATING SFC
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS WELL ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AS LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS NERN MEXICO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IT WOULD SEEM
PLAUSIBLE THAT AN EROSION OF THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE NM/TX
BORDER WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR
SFC-BASED PARCELS TO BECOME BUOYANT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WRN
EDGE OF RETREATING HIGH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35KT BY PEAK HEATING. ULTIMATELY
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN AZ/SRN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
OPTED TO MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR WIND/HAIL WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT WEAK ROTATION OR PSEUDO
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT SIGNIFICANT.
..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/16/2011
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