SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161830
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-161930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...NWRN TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161830Z - 161930Z
AN ISOLATED SVR STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SERN CO...AND IS JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW...SUBTLE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN
NM AND SRN CO...AND IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS ASCENT AND
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SERN CO AND NERN NM TOWARD 19-20Z...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. OVER SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. FURTHER HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH A
SURFACE MOIST AXIS /DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPR 50S/ WILL
LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1500 J PER KG BASED ON RUC OUTPUT/ THAT MAY AID IN MAINTENANCE OF
NM/CO ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM INTO KS/OK/TX BY MID-AFTERNOON. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK /AOB 20 KT/...S-SWLY WINDS IN THE 0-1
KM AGL LAYER VEER TO W-SWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT/ FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE
A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER.. 09/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38180389 38470240 38090080 36470084 35290181 34960304
35170410 36980467 38180389
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