DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161621
SWODY1
SPC AC 161619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT...WITH A WEAK SPLIT IN
THE FLOW MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/CNTRL
RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/WRN CANADA.
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM JET WILL
ENHANCE TSTM PROBABILITIES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY
SVR ACTIVITY...OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS.

AT THE SFC...SHALLOW COOL DOME NOW IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE SRN/CNTRL RCKYS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPR TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST...WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE W AND S LATER TODAY AS THE
SRN STREAM IMPULSES CONTINUE E/ENEWD.

...SRN RCKYS/SRN HI PLNS...
LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER S CNTRL CO SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY ENEWD. DIMINISHING LOW/MID LVL WAA
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER
PARTS OF SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX. UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS ALSO SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES E INTO SRN CO LATER
TODAY. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND THE NM
MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER
STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE SRN HI PLNS IN RESPONSE TO SFC
HEATING AND SELY LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SFC
RIDGE.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID
LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT WDLY SCTD STRONGER STORMS BY MID AFTN
OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM/FAR W TX. WITH SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
AND 30+ KT WSWLY MID LVL WINDS..SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW
MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD SPREAD E/NE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
PERHAPS SW KS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW COOL/STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
ERODE NEWD...AND AS SLY LLJ DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER SRN
STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER CA/NV.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 09/16/2011

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