Friday, September 16, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170027
SWODY1
SPC AC 170026

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A
FOCUS FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO KS/NEB DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MULTIFACETED UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD BUT MID-HIGH LEVEL
FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
MODEST...H5 FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT...ACROSS NM/WEST TX WHERE
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE BROADER WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SRN/CNTRL PLAINS BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS ACTUALLY QUITE LIMITED AND TRENDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE FOR WEAKER UPDRAFTS AS INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT IS QUITE MEAGER.

..DARROW.. 09/17/2011

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