WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 916

WWUS20 KWNS 111904
SEL6
SPC WW 111904
COZ000-NMZ000-120200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TRINIDAD COLORADO TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO NEW MEXICO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 915...

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS NM
AHEAD OF THE VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WIND MAX. WITH 50-60KT OF
SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD THRU THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG GRADIENT AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE MAIN
THREATS...HOWEVER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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