SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112204
TXZ000-NMZ000-112330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX...SCNTRL/SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112204Z - 112330Z
A NEW BAND OF DISCRETE TSTMS HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING FROM NRN
CHIHUAHUA INTO WRN HUDSPETH/ERN EL PASO COUNTIES IN TX AND CNTRL
OTERO COUNTY NM. IT IS TOUGH TO IDENTIFY ANYTHING IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT MAY BE AIDING IN LARGER SCALE ASCENT...BUT REGION DOES
REMAIN ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF THE GIANT GRT BASIN GYRE...LIKELY
RESULTING IN AT LEAST WEAK ASCENT.
REGION RESIDES WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURRED THIS AFTN WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. AS A
RESULT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SW MID-LVL FLOW OF 45-50 KTS ATOP
THE SELY SFC TRAJECTORIES ARE RESULTING IN A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SPLITTING SUPERCELLS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. IF A STORM CAN BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED...AN
ISOLD TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
LATER THIS EVENING...MODELS AND SATL LOOPS SUGGEST THAT WARMING
ALOFT...TIED TO REMNANT TC NORBERT...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THUS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE HOSTILE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FROM MID-LATE EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...HOWEVER...A WW MAY BE WARRANTED.
..RACY.. 10/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
31600665 33100550 33090422 32120377 31050400 30480441
30280534
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