SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111253
NMZ000-AZZ000-111500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ...SWRN NM.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111253Z - 111500Z
OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN TO SVR
LEVELS. SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION DIGGING EWD/ESEWD ACROSS NRN BAJA AND NWRN SONORA...S
OF LARGE UPPER CYCLONE PIVOTING EWD ACROSS SRN NV. TWO ASSOCIATED
EFFECTS APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS
REGION...
1. TIGHTENING OF HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT TO
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...
2. INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RELATED
ENHANCEMENT TO LAPSE RATES ALOFT...VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH
SUFFICIENT SFC THETAE FOR FAVORABLE BUOYANCY.
EACH WAS WELL SAMPLED BY 12Z TUS RAOB...WHICH EXHIBITED MLCAPE
AROUND 1100 J/KG AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WITH 0-1 KM
SRH APCHG 300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE APPROXIMATELY 60
KT. EVEN NEAR PREDAWN SFC THERMAL MIN...12Z TUS RAOB AND MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ARE SFC-BASED. THIS
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR ANY STG-SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT TO
ENCOUNTER MINIMAL DOWNWARD INHIBITION TO THEIR INTENSITY WHEN
REACHING SFC. EXPECT BUOYANCY TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND N OF THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OFF PACIFIC HURRICANE NORBERT.
..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
31790735 31770818 31330818 31331106 31731229 33581117
33811029 33300937 33360766 32900735
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