SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112024
NMZ000-AZZ000-112200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/EAST CENTRAL AZ...WRN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 915...
VALID 112024Z - 112200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 915
CONTINUES.
LONG-LIVED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WHICH HAS EXHIBITED PERIODIC
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAS MOVED FROM SERN AZ INTO NRN GRANT CNTY
NM. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE SWRN PART OF
WW 916 BY 21Z. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS SERN AZ INTO SWRN/WEST
CENTRAL NM...ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING DATA HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN FLASH
DENSITY DURING THE LAST 1-2 HRS ESPECIALLY OVER SERN AZ.
WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS REMAINING OVER PARTS OF SERN AND
EAST CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE
MOVING ACROSS ERN AZ. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPEAR TO BE NO LONGER
DIGGING SEWD. IN ADDITION...WARM AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING HURCN
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD INTO SERN AZ AND SWRN
NM LIMITING FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE STRONG WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE REGION THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT
OF SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING OVER THIS AREA. UNLESS NEAR-TERM
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY PRIOR TO
21Z...A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED. UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES WFO/S TWC AND EPZ CAN LOCALLY EXTEND IN TIME PARTS OF
WW 915 IF NEEDED.
..WEISS.. 10/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...
31571166 33340998 35800896 35960736 35270742 33350763
31800809 31330851 31281101
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