SWODY1
SPC AC 111608
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN AZ INTO THE SRN HI
PLAINS...
...SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY INTENSE UPPER LOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING VERY STRONG POLAR
JET MAX INITIALLY OVER SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SHIFTS NEWD THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING INVOLVED
WITH THE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. ONE SOURCE FROM
HURRICANE NORBERT HAS SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM THIS AM.
ADDITIONALLY GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE MOVING NWD THRU SRN HIGH
PLAINS.
SHALLOW COLD AIR HAS SETTLED SWD E OF CENTRAL ROCKIES TO A POSITION
FROM WRN KS/WRN OK PANHANDLE AND THEN WWD TO HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
CO/NM BORDER. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW CENTRAL UT
SWD E OF PHX THEN TO AZ/MEX BORDER.
VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ARE SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN AZ/NM AS
100 PLUS KT 500 MB JET ROTATES ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NWRN NM/WRN CO.
...ERN AZ/WRN NM...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AM AS THE NORBERT
MOISTURE WAS DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO ERN AZ.
STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG PER
12Z TUS SOUNDING SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS...HOWEVER MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.
STORMS NOW IN ERN AZ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THEY DEVELOP INTO WRN NM THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE HAIL/WIND PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OBSERVED STRONG CINH THIS AM ACROSS SRN HI PLAINS EXPECTED TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED INITIATION. WITH LOW
60F DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE 70S ERN NM...MLCAPES SHOULD
INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE PROGGED 50-60
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NERN NM. STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SERN CORNER
CO...NWRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE
OR TWO TORNADO SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
VICINITY SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE WHICH COULD MIX NWD BACK INTO SWRN KS
BY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER S THRU
ERN NM/WRN TX BY THIS EVENING.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 10/11/2008
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