SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111756
NMZ000-AZZ000-111930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ/WRN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 915...
VALID 111756Z - 111930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 915
CONTINUES.
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WW 915.
STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS SERN/EAST CENTRAL AZ INTO WRN NM
WITHIN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM HURCN NORBERT. A
PERSISTENT RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL HAS BEEN TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS NRN
COCHISE CNTY AZ DURING THE LAST HOUR...AND OTHER STORMS ARE
INCREASING IN A NE-SW LINE FROM EXTREME SRN NAVAJO CNTY AZ INTO SRN
PINAL CNTY AZ.
THE INTERACTION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE COLD WRN TROUGH WITH THE WRN
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME IS PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS. LATEST VAD PROFILES EXHIBIT VERY STRONG SWLY
WINDS/VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 50 KT FLOW WITHIN 1-2 KM AGL AND A
100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN AZ. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WHERE LOCALIZED HEATING WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DRYING AND PRESSURE RISES. THIS INDICATES
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..WEISS.. 10/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
31711168 33471125 35231078 35991055 36100937 36090782
35870728 34380752 31770808 31350849 31351017 31371118
31531160
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