DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN ADDITION TO A WEAK DEEP LAYER LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY /INVOF THE MID SOUTH/ AT THE START OF DAY 2...A SECOND LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF NEAR THE CA COAST FROM STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER SRN CANADA. THE MID SOUTH LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAY
DRIFT SLOWLY NWD SATURDAY WITHIN A DE-AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER W...AS A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE W COAST FRACTURES...THE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PORTION
EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NRN EXTENT
ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE SOUTHEAST...A
WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA --- ESPECIALLY INVOF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH GA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

...WRN/CNTRL MT...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S COLLOCATED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FAVOR WEAK CAPE OVER WRN/CNTRL MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES COMBINES WITH
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL WSWLYS
WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS.

...ERN NM...FAR SERN CO...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES...W-CNTRL TX...
LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL BACK 50S DEWPOINTS INTO ERN NM/W TX AND AID IN
MODERATE BUOYANCY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...AND SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. NNWLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ATOP BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS.

...COASTAL AREAS OF SERN LA TO FL PANHANDLE...
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED YET WITH THIS
OUTLOOK ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE MAY
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION OBSERVED ON A TRANSIENT BASIS. THE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL DATA FOR THE AREA TO HAVE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VARIES FROM SERN LA TO SWRN AL IN THE 12Z NAM...WITH THE GFS
INDICATING THE FL PANHANDLE HAVING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
ROTATION.

..PETERS.. 08/16/2013

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