Friday, August 16, 2013

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1732

ACUS11 KWNS 162036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162035
NMZ000-COZ000-162230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162035Z - 162230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SERN CO AND ERN NM
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH EVENTS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONGESTUS INCREASING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...AND A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN NM. MID-UPPER WINDS
ARE NNWLY WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE WHICH SUGGESTS
MID-UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH LIGHT SELY OR ELY
NEAR SFC WINDS VEERING TO NLY OR NNWLY 10-15 KT AT 500 MB. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATER WITH EWD EXTENT INTO NM
AND WRN TX. HOWEVER...THE WEAK NLY WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE FAR FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT IF THEY CAN
DEVELOP A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO AUGMENT PROPAGATION EFFECTS.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.

..DIAL/KERR.. 08/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33260496 35370484 37560493 38640499 38620403 37200336
34030320 33200370 33260496

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