DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170038
SWODY1
SPC AC 170035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LIGHTNING WILL BE PREDOMINATELY LOCATED ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES HAS STABILIZED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF ROBUST
CONVECTION REMAIN...IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NW.

HAVE DROPPED LOW SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AS STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SOON MOVE OFFSHORE. WHILE
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY LINGER BEYOND 01Z IT APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER POCKET OF LOCALIZED STRONG STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM WHERE WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MODEST NNWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEAR
ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.

LONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER UMATILLA COUNTY ORE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE PDT AREA. LATEST WDSS-II HAIL ALGORITHM
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS HAIL APPROACHING GOLF BALLS MAY BE NOTED WITH
THIS STORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED ACROSS NERN ORE
AND SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..DARROW.. 08/17/2013

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