SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220216
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR...FAR SERN OK...FAR NERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220216Z - 220345Z
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HEAVY RAIN...A
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP INVOF CYCLONE
TRACKING EWD FROM FAR SERN OK. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY
04Z IS 40 PERCENT.
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE AROUND 30 W DEQ WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING S/SWWD INTO NERN TX AND A QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM
FRONT ARCING EWD NEAR HOT TO PBF. TSTM CLUSTERS WHICH HAVE PRIMARILY
REMAINED ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE CYCLONE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE
EXHIBITED AN INCREASE IN WIND SIGNATURES VIA RADAR...AS WELL AS IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS /34 KT MEASURED AT KPRX/. WITH THE GREATEST
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AMIDST STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AOA 250 M2 PER S2/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE EWD THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SWRN INTO CNTRL AR IN
CONCERT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
..GRAMS.. 11/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 33699524 34369489 34719448 34889395 34919334 34799273
34619246 34309247 33819261 33429315 33359395 33319448
33439510 33699524
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