SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210940
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-211115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 210940Z - 211115Z
AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NE AR AND WRN TO MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL AND NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.
TWO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM ERN AR INTO WRN
TN ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE
ARKLATEX. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED 45 TO 55 KT
MID-LEVEL JET IS PRESENT JUST UPSTREAM AND IS LIKELY HELPING THE
STORMS TO BE MAINTAINED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER FLOW NEAR THE SFC AND A
RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS IN SPITE OF A 40 KT EWD MOTION. FOR THIS
REASON...ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IF THE
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS CAN REMAIN SUSTAINED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..BROYLES.. 11/21/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 36218651 36178836 35519068 35049096 34729081 34599044
34778902 34858750 35208672 36218651
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