SWOD48
SPC AC 210909
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
STG COLD FROPA IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS
TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT SVR CONVECTION THROUGH
DAY-4/24TH-25TH. BY THEN...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE CA COAST AND NRN BAJA. SYSTEM RESULTS FROM
PHASING OF MAINLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS NOW OVER ERN
SIBERIA...BERING SEA AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL PAC...WHERE SUBTLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SAMPLING/INTEGRATION OF THESE FEATURES LIKELY
CONTRIBUTES TO VARIATIONS A FEW DAYS OUT. TRACK/AMPLITUDE PROGS
DIVERGE MARKEDLY OVER SWRN/S-CENTRAL CONUS DAY-4...BECOMING EXTREME
DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. BY DAY-6/26TH-27TH...OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL
MODEL USES REINFORCING SPEED/VORTICITY MAXIMA TO DEVELOP
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM MN TO NWRN GULF...WHILE WEAKER SRN-NRN
STREAM PHASING IN ECMWF YIELDS RETROGRADING/CUT-OFF LOW OVER NWRN
MEX. MREF SOLUTIONS COVER THAT FULL SPECTRUM AND MORE.
THEREFORE...WHILE SVR EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN
CONUS DAYS 5-7...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO DRAW OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/21/2011
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