Monday, November 21, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220048
SWODY1
SPC AC 220047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR SWWD INTO ERN AND
CENTRAL TX...

...AR...SERN OK AND CENTRAL/ERN TX...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AR SWWD THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL TX. THUS FAR...THE UPPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE...HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION TO OCCUR PRIMARILY ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ACROSS
NWRN TX AND INTO OK HAS WEAKENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A TUL-ADM-SJT LINE...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN ERN TX HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NWWD THE
PAST FEW HOURS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN
TX/SRN OK IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. EVENTUALLY THE STORMS
FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALSO...AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO
KS AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED... CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN AR LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SURFACE
BASED STORMS TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE/DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
AS IT BEGINS TO HEAD EWD...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NERN TX
INTO SWRN AR WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST AS SURFACE LOWS
DEVELOP AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT.

..IMY.. 11/22/2011

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