MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2347

ACUS11 KWNS 211504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211503
TXZ000-OKZ000-211600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211503Z - 211600Z

SHOWERS WITH TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN/NWRN TX...DEVELOPING ENEWD
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX AND SWRN/SRN OK. GIVEN THAT THESE
STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...AND THUS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ANY INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORM INTENSITIES THAT WOULD WARRANT
A WATCH ISSUANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH
AZ/NWRN MEXICO INTO NM THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG ASCENT EVIDENT IN
THE COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM
AND ADJACENT MEXICO. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTMS HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER WEST CENTRAL TX NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SW...CENTRAL INTO NE TX AND AR. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY
WAS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY WAA AS A SLY LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE SWRN STATES TROUGH.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT MIDLEVEL JET EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ENEWD. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-50 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A
THREAT FOR HAIL...GIVEN THE STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 11/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32110092 32620187 33380205 34500203 35300064 35709901
35559804 34639775 33579752 32869762 32529893 32110092

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