DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX...THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SERN STATES AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL MOVE ENEWD...REACHING THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC.

...SERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...

THE SERN U.S. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND
DEVELOP NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENEWD MIGRATING SSWLY LLJ THAT
SHOULD UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN HALF OF
THE SERN STATES TO NEAR 60 OVER THE OH VALLEY. OWING TO EXPECTED
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDS...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF
DIABATIC WARMING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHICH SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE FROM
1500 J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO AOB 500 J/KG
OVER THE OH VALLEY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH QLCS THE DOMINANT MODE AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 45+ KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AS IT CONTINUES EWD...AND STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME
STRENGTHENING AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS
EXPECTED IN THE CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY
AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NRN GA AND SC
OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 11/21/2011

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