SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220445
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR...N-CNTRL/NERN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 894...
VALID 220445Z - 220615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 894 CONTINUES.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY
PEAKED ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF WW 894 IN SWRN AR...AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO INCREASE FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL AR IN THE NEAR-TERM.
FARTHER SW...ELEVATED TSTMS DISPLACED 50-60 MILES W OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN NERN TX MAY EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE
BOUNDARY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
COULD WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.
04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1010 MB CYCLONE ALONG THE SERN OK/SWRN
AR BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD AROUND 25 N HOT TO NEAR LIT.
QUASI-STATIONARY/SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED S/SWWD FROM 30 E
PRX TO 20 SE TPL. REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY SIGNATURES HAVE LARGELY
WANED WITH INITIAL SEVERE TSTMS INVOF SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS SWRN
AR. SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN AR INTO
THE LOWER 60S SUGGESTING THAT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL REINTENSIFICATION.
FARTHER SW...ELEVATED TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL TX /TIED TO INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AROUND 850 MB/ SHOULD POSE A MARGINAL HAIL RISK IN THE
NEAR-TERM. WITH TIME...THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WEAKEN/VEER AND
SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. STILL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 50 KTS...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE
ACROSS NERN TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..GRAMS.. 11/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 33739480 34509438 34829354 34849317 34509277 33959266
33579323 32789418 31589517 31009610 30889709 31139747
31769724 32639589 33409515 33739480
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