SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101537
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-101730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME ERN CO...WRN KS INTO NW OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101537Z - 101730Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AROUND 17-18Z.
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A 90+ KT
CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO/THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATELY STRONG CAPE AS SURFACE HEATING PROGRESSES. THE
DEVELOPING DRY LINE NEAR A DEEP SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION ...AND STORM
INITIATION...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THOUGH
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MODEST...CLOCKWISE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/ INCREASING AMBIENT
VERTICAL VORTICITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
..KERR.. 05/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 39310294 39910203 39190080 38889972 37959927 36949911
36529996 36850108 37690173 38510209 39310294
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