SWODY3
SPC AC 270441
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED LOW DIGGING SEWD OVER SRN CA ON DAY 2 WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY ESEWD OVER NW MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT AND POTENTIALLY
WEAK INSTABILITY NE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF AZ AND SW NM. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION COULD ALSO SPREAD NEWD INTO SW TX IN ADVANCE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW.
FARTHER E...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND SE OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED BY LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN A BAND FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...AND THE
BAND WILL PROGRESS SEWD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD MATERIALIZE WITH STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE BAND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT
IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME.
..THOMPSON.. 11/27/2009
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