Sunday, September 9, 2007

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090729
SWODY3
SPC AC 090727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND NAM INCREASE THIS PERIOD...WITH RESPECT
TO THE HANDLING OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE
/CENTERED OVER NERN OK AT 12/00Z/...WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS A MUCH
STRONGER TROUGH/LOW WHICH PROGRESSES MORE SLOWLY SEWD /CENTERED OVER
NERN CO AT 12/00Z/.

AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE NAM IS SUGGESTIVE OF A LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY BUT AMPLE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED/STRONGER
STORMS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES NOT SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN THIRD OF THE
CONUS INVOF LINGERING FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOW. THUS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS
FORECAST...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY AREA COULD BE REQUIRED IN LATER
FORECASTS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.GOSS.. 09/09/2007

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