Sunday, September 9, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100033
SWODY1
SPC AC 100030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN NM EWD INTO CNTRL TX...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AND SRN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. 00Z ELP SOUNDING IS QUITE
REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...EXHIBITING
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND GRADUAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 03-04Z.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG MULTIPLE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM ABI TO THE METROPLEX. 00Z MAF/FTW
SOUNDINGS SHOW POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER AIR MASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST S OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH SBCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. HERE TOO...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

.MEAD.. 09/10/2007

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