SWODY2
SPC AC 140610
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2009
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST DAY-2...AS STG CYCLONE NOW
OFFSHORE CAROLINAS MOVES FARTHER OUT OVER ATLANTIC...AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER DAKOTAS EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS ONT/QUE.
SRN PORTION OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WA/ORE -- IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE SEWD
DAY-1...LEADING TO CLOSED 500 MB LOW INVOF 4-CORNERS BY 15/12Z. STG
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG MOST SREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL/WRF WITH THIS LOW REACHING ERN PANHANDLE OF TX BY END OF
PERIOD...EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM MN-CHIHUAHUA.
AT SFC...COLD FRONT INITIALLY WAS ANALYZED FROM WRN LS SWWD ACROSS
IA...ERN KS...AND OK PANHANDLE. BY 15/12Z...FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE
TO POSITION NEAR ERN LH...CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...S-CENTRAL/SERN
OK...THEN WWD ACROSS PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS OR SRN PANHANDLE. AS
MID/UPPER LOW APCHS...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...MOVING TO NEAR TXK BY 16/12Z.
...S-CENTRAL TX TO ARKLATEX REGION...
APCH OF CYCLONE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND MID-UPPER
FLOW OVER THIS REGION...WHILE NARROW BUT INCREASINGLY WELL-MODIFIED
PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THAT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK
AREA DURING PERIOD...WITH SOME SWD EXPANSION LIKELY. BY
CONTRAST...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT
WILL REMAIN BEHIND FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL/WAA REGIME IS PROGGED TO
CONTAIN 850 MB WINDS BELOW 25 KT...LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE. SERIES
OF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE TO LIMIT DEPTH/MAGNITUDE
OF BUOYANCY...WITH ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS BEING PRIMARY BUT MRGL SVR
CONCERN ATTM.
CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER S INTO
CENTRAL/S TX DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGES UPON
GREATER WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT. DESPITE SFC DEW POINTS 60S F
IN PROXIMITY TO THIS ACTIVITY...CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY PRESENCE
OF WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2009
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