SWODY1
SPC AC 061249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2011
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SRN
ROCKIES WILL ASSUME MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT WITH TIME AS A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 70-80+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ROUND THE
TROUGH BASE AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PREVAILING SWLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE
NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD
FRONT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY EWD DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD.
...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING INVOF
SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY DCVA
ATTENDANT TO ABOVE-MENTIONED IMPULSE. THE 12Z BHM SOUNDING APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-600 J/KG FOR PARCELS
ORIGINATING FROM THE SATURATED LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB. AS
SUCH...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO PERSIST THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION OF 10% GENERAL TSTM PROBABILITIES.
..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/06/2011
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