SWODY1
SPC AC 061237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...VA/CAROLINAS...
STRONG MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION TODAY. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS
MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 50S COUPLED WITH STEADILY COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION
WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON.
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE DEEPER
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.
HOWEVER... ARRIVAL OF 50-60+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND RESULTANT
STRENGTHENING OF VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...SWRN TX...
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS RETURNING THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LATER
TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE
RATE...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING /WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS/ PRIOR TO DISSIPATING WITH THE COOLING/STABILIZATION OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..MEAD/GRAMS.. 05/06/2011
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