SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032043
KSZ000-COZ000-032245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO AND WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032043Z - 032245Z
20Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK LOW OVER NWRN KS WITH A WRMFNT SEWD
INTO CNTRL KS AND A NLY SURGE MOVING THROUGH NERN CO AND NWRN KS.
TSTMS FORMED EARLIER IN THE AFTN ACROSS ECNTRL CO. INITIALLY OF
PULSE SVR VARIETY...THE TSTM CLUSTER HAS PRODUCED COLD POOLS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM GENERATION SWD INTO SERN CO
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS EXHIBITED
A DEEP MIXED LAYER TOPPED BY MODEST AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY. NEARLY 40
DEG F SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL AUGMENT DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG AND SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER E...WHILE LLVL HEATING HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER...BOUNDARY LAYER WAS MUCH MORE MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS OF
60-63 DEG F OVER WRN KS. TCU HAS BEEN DVLPG INVOF THE WEAK WIND
SHIFT SURGING SWD INTO WRN KS AND ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
SERN CO STORM ANVILS. EXPECT THAT A COUPLE DEGREES MORE WARMING
WILL LEAD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS BY 21-22Z. WRN KS RESIDES ALONG WRN
PERIPHERY OF 30-35 KT NWLY MID-LVL FLOW WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT
THE ERN NEB UPR LOW. WEAK ELY/SELY LLVL FLOW WILL AUGMENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG MULTICELLS AND OCNL
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS PSBL. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD INTO SWRN KS DURING THE EVENING.
..RACY.. 09/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38620259 38940134 39360042 39079997 38500018 37470069
37060282 37270356 38460361 38620259
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