SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032046
TXZ000-032245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INTO N-CENTRAL AND SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032046Z - 032245Z
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN
NARROW ARC NEAR SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN INTO SERN TX. WW
NOT ANTICIPATED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG
SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF HOUSTON INTO THE
FTW AREA AND THEN WWD TO JUST WEST OF LBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED OVER SERN TX WITH DEVELOPMENT NOW
INCREASING TO THE WEST OF LBB AND NEAR FTW WITH CG-LIGHTNING
OBSERVED ATTM. AREA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME QUITE WARM AND IS SUPPORTING AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM N-CENTRAL INTO SERN TX. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON AREA VWP/PROFILERS REMAINS RATHER WEAK /SFC-6 KM MEAN
WIND AOB 10 KT/...DEEP CONVERGENCE AND HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW
APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING WWD OVER ERN TX...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SUGGESTS AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH HAIL. PW/S
IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX AND 1.2 INTO
W-CENTRAL TX SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS WELL. OVERALL
WEAK ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL/SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE NEED FOR A WW.
..EVANS.. 09/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 31259527 30229484 29879550 30159642 31879745 32349830
32969975 33630243 34030250 34210190 33849904 32969702
32049602 31259527
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