SWODY1
SPC AC 031611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN NEB WILL CONTINUE SETTLING
SSEWD TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING SW-NE
FROM SRN NEB INTO SERN CO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS HEATING WEAKENS CAPPING AND
PRODUCES MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE CENTRAL KS-NEB
BORDER SWWD INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND NERN NM. WEAK SELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS REGION IS
OVERSPREAD BY 25-35 KT OF MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS. THIS SUGGESTS A FEW
MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS...INCLUDING WEAK SUPERCELLS...
COULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ATTENDANT RISKS OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE
AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST TONIGHT NEAR THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS AND TOWARDS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY/NWRN TX AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST NAM/GFS.
...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX AND FAR SRN OK...
SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NERN TX
INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ALONG AND JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE WEAK...CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT AND WEAKENING CAP/INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DRIFT SLOWLY SSEWD WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF
ISOLATED...BRIEF-LIVED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
..EVANS/GRAMS.. 09/03/2009
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