SWODY2
SPC AC 030500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS GENERALLY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF/QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK OR WEAKEN FURTHER...WHILE SIMILARLY WEAK FLOW PREVAILS BENEATH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION... POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS...BARRING STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EXTREMELY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.
..KERR.. 09/03/2009
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