SWODY2
SPC AC 031712
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD...FEATURING A POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM ERN
CANADA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND A STRONGER TROUGH OFF THE WRN
CANADA AND PACIFIC NW COASTS. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE OZARKS WHILE MORE
PROGRESSIVE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND
GREAT BASIN.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU REGION.
...OK/N TX INTO ARKLATEX...
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN DISPLACED INVOF RED RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FROM NWRN
OK INTO CNTRL AR FRI...BEFORE SAGGING SWD IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CNTRL PLAINS. REGION WILL
RESIDE TO THE E OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT OVER THE
ROCKIES. BUT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING S OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WILL YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE OZARKS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED
TSTMS ALONG OR ON COOL SIDE OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING SWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY FRI
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
/25-30 KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 09/03/2009
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