Tuesday, November 2, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021631
SWODY2
SPC AC 021631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE INITIALLY ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST WILL DEVELOP
SSEWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING POLAR BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OH VALLEY. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE GRADUAL SWD
DISPLACEMENT SURFACE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST TO OFFSHORE.

...GULF COAST...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT AN AXIS OF
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE PRESENT OVER SRN LA WED MORNING
WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY: 1) THE CONTINUED
SEWD PROGRESSION OF MCS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS FROM SERN LA INTO THE
NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND 2) THE EXPECTATION THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF COAST. AS SUCH...NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INTRODUCED TO THE DAY TWO FORECAST.

..MEAD.. 11/02/2010

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