SWODY3
SPC AC 020705
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...FL...
UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL BE SHUNTED INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
BEFORE IT FINALLY EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY3 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL COMPETE SOMEWHAT
WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF DEEPENING OH VALLEY TROUGH BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FRONTAL ZONE WILL EASE INTO
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PER
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST...EXTENDING WSWWD INTO
SFC LOW BENEATH GOM UPPER LOW. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN BOTH
MODELS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA EARLY...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FORCING THAT WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE. THIS EARLY WAVE WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION AND SERVE TO VEER FLOW ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...MINIMIZING CONVERGENCE WITH PRIMARY FORCING. FOR THIS
REASON IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SUPPRESSED. HAVE INTRODUCED 5% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE...BOTH
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL WAVE AND PERHAPS ALONG MAIN FRONTAL
SURGE...THOUGH STRENGTH OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REDUCED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 11/02/2010
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