SWODY1
SPC AC 021926
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST...
5% WIND AND 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY LINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
EWD TO ACCOUNT FOR N-S BAND OF DISCRETE STORMS NEAR AND S OF MOBILE
BAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM LINE.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2035.
..MEAD.. 11/02/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010/
A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EAST TX DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF LA/MS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRAILING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHEAST OK. THE ONLY AREA WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINS IS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WILL HELP TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE /3KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2/...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN OCCASIONAL ROTATING STORM WITH A RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OR WIND GUST. OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW ACROSS LA/MS TODAY.
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