SWODY2
SPC AC 020513
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE THEIR EARLIER TRENDS REGARDING
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO THE NWRN GULF
OF MEXICO BY 04/12Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHIFTING INTO THE CNTRL GOM WHERE H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 50KT...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST.
EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT WILL BE THE SWD SHIFT OF INSTABILITY AS OFFSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND FORCES THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A NARROW WEDGE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY LINGER OVER SRN LA EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE THE
STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE UPCOMING DAY1
PERIOD AND OVERTURNING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON BUOYANCY MAY ULTIMATELY PROVE
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 11/02/2010
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