SWODY2
SPC AC 191722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND
INTO LA OVERNIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...A STRONG JET
STREAK WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECTING ERN TX INTO LA AND
AR. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD...EXTENDING FROM
NEAR LAREDO TX TO CNTRL LA BY 00Z.
TO THE N...THE NRN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY.
...SRN AND ERN TX...WRN LA...SRN AR...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY FRI ALONG
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CAPPING WILL EXIST FARTHER S AWAY FROM THE
FRONT INITIALLY...BUT STRONG LIFT...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN TX WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. SHEAR PROFILES OVER ERN TX AND INTO AR
AND LA LOOK TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. FARTHER SW...LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...BUT CAPPING WILL REMAIN FOR
A LONGER DURATION AND FORCING ESPECIALLY FOR DEEP S TX MAY BE
LIMITED. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT A SMALL SLIGHT FOR THE BEST
COMBINATION OF FORCING AND PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN IN A POST FRONTAL
REGIME...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN JUST N OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
...NRN KY INTO OH...
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO EXIST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT EARLY FRI ACROSS IL AND IND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEATING WILL
OCCUR AND WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 50S F WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. DEEP
SWLY FLOW...INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS SHOULD HELP
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THE THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND WANE AFTER SUNSET.
..JEWELL.. 04/19/2012
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