DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190528
SWODY2
SPC AC 190527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...SOUTH TX...

CNTRL ROCKIES SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER
EAST TX DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. 12HR HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 60M WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SURGING COLD FRONT BY 21Z ACROSS SERN/SCNTRL TX DURING PEAK
HEATING. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND SFC DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTRAORDINARY...SFC-6KM
VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 25-35KT AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR AND NERN TX. THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AS
WELL.

...OH VALLEY...

ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW OVER SERN LOWER MI/SRN ON AT
18Z...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY INTO SRN IND. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SFC PARCELS
TO FREELY CONVECT. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION THUS WILL
INTRODUCE A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.