SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040645
CAZ000-040815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040645Z - 040815Z
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL. MOST OF THE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...
THOUGH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY
SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH. A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE OVERALL
LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL.
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM THE
NRN SIERRA SSWWD TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCATED ALONG A FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG AND INTO THE W COAST. DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS CA...ATTENDANT TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
ATOP STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH 12Z. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO SRN CA PER
00Z SOUNDINGS IS MAINTAINING PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH. DESPITE THIS
MOISTURE AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH...TIME OF DAY IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 500
J PER KG/ AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
MARGINAL TO LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENTS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
VICINITY WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER.
..PETERS.. 10/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...
LAT...LON 38292026 37111899 36241838 35211850 35091908 35661992
36572065 37582111 38292026
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