SWODY3
SPC AC 040722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER...REMAINING GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. BUT IT APPEARS THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA COULD COMMENCE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE EAST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BEGIN TO
LIFT MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE WESTERLIES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLES IS
QUITE LARGE CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS.
REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR AN ASSOCIATED 50-60+ KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK NOSING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT SUBSTANTIVE
DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...OR AT LEAST APPEARS UNLIKELY...PRECLUDING ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..KERR.. 10/04/2010
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