SWODY1
SPC AC 041930
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S....
...SWRN U.S...
HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN UT TO ACCOUNT FOR
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...JUST UPSTREAM...THAT SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIRMASS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN UT...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG...BUT SWLY TRAJECTORIES SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
AT LEAST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EARLIER FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CONVECTION NOW
EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY...DRIVEN IN
LARGE PART BY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IT WOULD SEEM THAT
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH TRAINING
UPDRAFTS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ACCOMPANY THE TRAINING ECHOES.
..DARROW.. 10/04/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010/
...SWRN U.S...
SATELLITE AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SEWD ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. CLOSED UPR LOW WILL FORM BY THIS
EVENING SCENTRAL CA WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS
SRN NV SWD THRU LWR CO RIVER VALLEY.
A MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FEED NWD THRU SRN CA/AZ INTO NV/SRN UT
WITH PWATS TO 1 INCH. COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
7-8C/KM AND DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTION SRN NV/UT SWD THRU WRN AZ/SERN
CA.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG DESERT
VALLEYS. WITH 30-40KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SEVERE
CONCERN WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
BRIEF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STRONGER
MID LEVEL JET ROTATES EWD ACROSS SRN CA ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES
VICINITY LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE HAIL SIZE WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN MOST STORM
ACTIVITY.
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