Monday, October 4, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1924

ACUS11 KWNS 050034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050033
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-050130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA / NWRN AZ / SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690...

VALID 050033Z - 050130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690
CONTINUES.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL
CONTINUE BEYOND 02Z...THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. AS SUCH...AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A LOCAL
EXTENSION IN TIME OF WW 690 WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SRN NV
AND NWRN AZ.

AS OF 0020Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM SRN NYE COUNTY NV INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AZ WITH A
GENERAL NWD MOTION OF 30-40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD/SEWD THROUGH SRN CA
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE
THIS AREA RESIDES BETWEEN OBSERVED UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SITES...RUC
OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

BASED ON 00Z FGZ/NKX SOUNDING DATA...ONGOING STORMS RESIDE WITHIN A
NOTABLE GRADIENT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. AS
SUCH...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
BEYOND 02Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY --WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC WARMING-- THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

..MEAD.. 10/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON 34371431 34951488 35391579 35931616 36861612 37441551
37661452 36851364 35731343 34491352 34371431

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