SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041752
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-041945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ...SERN CA...SRN NV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041752Z - 041945Z
AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.00 INCH. CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN WITH SWLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND IN EXCESS OF 30
KT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE VALLEYS WILL AID GUSTY
WINDS.
WHILE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
..JEWELL.. 10/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 33551351 33841495 34941672 35941671 36831586 36991462
36931385 36521340 35691340 35151318 34701270 34431231
34051243 33551351
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