SWODY1
SPC AC 041257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR CO VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48...WITH TROUGH ALONG
THE W CST...QSTNRY UPR LOW OVER THE OH VLY...AND RIDGE OVER THE
RCKYS/PLNS. SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW MOVING SE JUST
OFF THE CNTRL CA CST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TURN MORE E OR ESE ACROSS
SRN CA LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX CONTINUES S ACROSS THE E
PACIFIC AND HELPS CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE REGION EARLY TUE.
...SWRN STATES...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MID LVL COOLING WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR
IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR CO VLY TODAY. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
DEEP SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS.
NEW TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTN ACROSS SRN NV...SE CA...AND NW AZ
AS SFC TEMPS WARM BENEATH PW PLUME WITH VALUES AOA 1 INCH. GIVEN
30-40 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES...COUPLED WITH SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES...SETUP MAY YIELD BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND AND
HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVE.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/04/2010
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