SWODY1
SPC AC 050045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN CA...SRN
NV...WRN AZ...
...SERN CA...SRN NEV...WRN AZ AND SWRN UT...
THIS EVENING A RESERVOIR OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE REMAINS FROM SRN CA...SRN NV INTO WRN AZ WHERE STEEP LAPSE
RATES EXIST ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS HAVE
GENERALLY MIXED DOWN INTO THE 40S/. MOST STORMS SO FAR HAVE ACHIEVED
LIMITED ORGANIZATION DUE TO MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES FARTHER EWD. HOWEVER...A STRONG JET DROPPING SWD
ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIMIT EWD PROGRESS
OF THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX PIVOTING
NEWD OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE. THOUGH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO ROTATE...THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. NEVERTHELESS...A WINDOW REMAINS THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..DIAL.. 10/05/2010
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